True or false?
1. The Golden Globes is a more entertaining TV show than the Academy Awards.
2. Winning a Golden Globe is no guarantee of winning an Oscar.
3. The Golden Globes divides the best actor and actress categories into drama and musical/comedy, but not the supporting actor and actress categories.
4. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is made up of a bunch of swag-loving, rear-end kissing freeloaders.
The answers: true, true, very true, and extremely true (although, in fairness, you can say the same thing about most of the U.S. entertainment press).
If you answered all four correctly, you're as qualified to vote in the Golden Globes as the Hollywood foreign press. You might even be qualified to win a Golden Globe. What the heck, it's a party ... Golden Globes for everyone!
My colleague Kristi Turnquist is veteran Golden Globes watcher and a big fan of Tina Fey and Amy Poehler as hosts. I'll confine myself to some prognosticating, and remind those who handicap the Oscars that the Producers Guild Awards (given out Jan. 24) are a much more accurate predictor of the Academy Awards. If "Boyhood" wins, it's a victory for independent cinema. If "The Imitation Game" wins, then tradition holds. In the meantime, enjoy those Golden Globes and the snazzy hosts. Tina and Amy really know how to work a format that the Oscars still hasn't figured out.
Best Motion Picture -- Drama: "Boyhood," "Foxcatcher," "The Imitation Game," "Selma," "The Theory of Everything."
What will win: "The Imitation Game." This is the Hollywood Foreign Press, remember? No way they pass up a prestige British drama for an American indie.
What should win: "Boyhood." It's bold, unusual, heartfelt, intelligent -- a once-in-a-decade movie.
Best Actor -- Drama: Steve Carell "Foxcatcher," Benedict Cumberbatch "The Imitation Game," Jake Gyllenhaal "Nightcrawler," David Oyelowo "Selma,"
Eddie Redmayne "The Theory Of Everything."
Who will win: Cumberbatch is the man of the moment, although Redmayne's more physical performance might impress the foreign press.
Who should win: Tough category, maybe the most competitive of the evening. I'd maybe go with Oyelowo as Dr. King because I just saw it, but all are worthy.
Best Actress - Drama: Jennifer Aniston "Cake," Felicity Jones "The Theory of Everything," Julianne Moore "Still Alice," Rosamund Pike "Gone Girl," Reese Witherspoon "Wild."
Who will win: I haven't seen "Still Alice" but I think this is Moore's year, here and at the Oscars.
Who should win: I just saw "Gone Girl" again and was even more impressed at the way Pike took control of what could have been Ben Affleck's movie and made it about the gone girl, not the confused guy.
Best Comedy or Musical: "Birdman," "The Grand Budapest Hotel," "Into the Woods," "Pride," "St. Vincent."
What will win: It's hard to imagine this bunch warming to "Birdman" or "The Grand Budapest Hotel," and "St. Vincent" just isn't that good. Maybe "Into the Woods" -- prestige musical, Brit in the lead role?
What should win: Not a Wes Anderson crowd, not by a longshot, but "The Grand Budapest Hotel" is Anderson at his rarified best. "Birdman" is equally deserving.
Best Actor -- Musical or Comedy: Ralph Fiennes "The Grand Budapest Hotel," Michael Keaton "Birdman," Bill Murray "St. Vincent," Joaquin Phoenix "Inherent Vice," Christoph Waltz "Big Eyes."
Who will win: When in doubt at the Golden Globes, go with the Englishman. These voters love Fiennes, and they don't love some of the other mavericks.
Who should win: I love this category -- all are deserving except Waltz, a little grating and one-note in "Big Eyes." I'd take Phoenix but sure wouldn't quarrel with Keaton getting his due.
Best Actress -- Musical or Comedy: Amy Adams "Big Eyes," Emily Blunt "Into The Woods," Helen Mirren "The Hundred-Foot Journey," Julianne Moore "Maps to the Stars."
Who will win: Normally I'd say Mirren because she's Helen Mirren and they're not, but I'm thinking Blunt and "Into the Woods" might get some Golden Globes love.
Who should win: Moore, and why not?
Best Supporting Actor: Robert Duvall "The Judge," Ethan Hawke "Boyhood," Edward Norton "Birdman," Mark Ruffalo "Foxcatcher," J.K. Simmons "Whiplash."
Who will win: The supporting categories are more of an Oscar preview because there's no drama/comedy split. I'd shudder if Duvall's hammy performance was rewarded but I think it's Simmons' year, all the way to Oscar.
Who should win: Simmons. It's a lead role, but so what? He's great.
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette "Boyhood," Jessica Chastain "A Most Violent Year," Keira Knightley "The Imitation Game," Emma Stone "Birdman," Meryl Streep "Into the Woods."
Who will win: If Knightley wins, it's big momentum for "The Imitation Game." If Streep wins, they should just name every trophy after her. I think it's Arquette's year, all the way to Oscar.
Who should win: Arquette. It's a lead role, but so what? She's great.
Best Director: Wes Anderson "The Grand Budapest Hotel," Ava DuVernay "Selma," David Fincher "Gone Girl," Alejandro González Iñárritu "Birdman," Richard Linklater "Boyhood."
Who will win: Great category, all are deserving. Maybe DuVernay will be the first woman since Barbra Streisand to win.
Who should win: Linklater. The visionary.
Best Animated Feature Film: "Big Hero 6," "The Book of Life," "The Boxtrolls," "How to Train Your Dragon 2," "The Lego Movie."
What will win: Some nice work here, but "The Lego Movie" has wit and flair to spare.
What should win: "The Lego Movie."
Best Foreign Language Film: "Force Majeure" (Sweden), "Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem," (Israel), "Ida" (Poland/Denmark), "Leviathan" (Russia), "Tangerines" (Estonia).
What will win: "Ida" is a small, quiet masterpiece.
What should win: "Ida."
Best Screenplay: Wes Anderson "The Grand Budapest Hotel," Gillian Flynn "Gone Girl," Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Armando Bo,
Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. "Birdman," Richard Linklater "Boyhood," Graham Moore "The Imitation Game."
What will win: Moore's script for "The Imitation Game" hits all the right notes in all the right places.
What should win: Anderson. Not Linklater? What about my unending love for all things "Boyhood"? I think Anderson's a solo artist as a writer, and his "Budapest" script is airtight and so much fun.
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat "The Imitation Game," Johann Johannsson "The Theory of Everything," Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross "Gone Girl," Antonio Sanchez "Birdman," Hans Zimmer "Interstellar."
What will win: Zimmer wrote a big, boomy score, as anyone's who been in the theater next to "Interstellar" knows. Desplat is a workaholic, and his score hits all the right notes in all the right places.
What should win: The jazzy beat that Sanchez puts down in "Birdman" pushes the pace of a wild, original ride.
Best Original Song - Motion Picture: "Big Eyes" from "Big Eyes" (Lana Del Rey), "Glory" from "Selma" (John Legend, Common), "Mercy Is" from "Noah" (Patti Smith, Lenny Kaye), "Opportunity" from "Annie" (Sia), "Yellow Flicker Beat" from "The Hunger Games: Mockingjay -- Part 1" (Lorde)
What will win: Not a Lana del Rey crowd, not a Patti Smith crowd, and definitely not a Sia crowd. "Glory" is a safe choice, and Lorde's closing-credits anthem isn't so bad.
What should win: "Big Eyes" is such an in-the-pocket choice -- it feels like Lana del Rey posed for those paintings.
-- Jeff Baker
My colleague Kristi Turnquist is veteran Golden Globes watcher and a big fan of Tina Fey and Amy Poehler as hosts. I'll confine myself to some prognosticating, and remind those who handicap the Oscars that the Producers Guild Awards (given out Jan. 24) are a much more accurate predictor of the Academy Awards. If "Boyhood" wins, it's a victory for independent cinema. If "The Imitation Game" wins, then tradition holds. In the meantime, enjoy those Golden Globes and the snazzy hosts. Tina and Amy really know how to work a format that the Oscars still hasn't figured out.
Best Motion Picture -- Drama: "Boyhood," "Foxcatcher," "The Imitation Game," "Selma," "The Theory of Everything."
What will win: "The Imitation Game." This is the Hollywood Foreign Press, remember? No way they pass up a prestige British drama for an American indie.
What should win: "Boyhood." It's bold, unusual, heartfelt, intelligent -- a once-in-a-decade movie.
Best Actor -- Drama: Steve Carell "Foxcatcher," Benedict Cumberbatch "The Imitation Game," Jake Gyllenhaal "Nightcrawler," David Oyelowo "Selma,"
Eddie Redmayne "The Theory Of Everything."
Who will win: Cumberbatch is the man of the moment, although Redmayne's more physical performance might impress the foreign press.
Who should win: Tough category, maybe the most competitive of the evening. I'd maybe go with Oyelowo as Dr. King because I just saw it, but all are worthy.
Best Actress - Drama: Jennifer Aniston "Cake," Felicity Jones "The Theory of Everything," Julianne Moore "Still Alice," Rosamund Pike "Gone Girl," Reese Witherspoon "Wild."
Who will win: I haven't seen "Still Alice" but I think this is Moore's year, here and at the Oscars.
Who should win: I just saw "Gone Girl" again and was even more impressed at the way Pike took control of what could have been Ben Affleck's movie and made it about the gone girl, not the confused guy.
Best Comedy or Musical: "Birdman," "The Grand Budapest Hotel," "Into the Woods," "Pride," "St. Vincent."
What will win: It's hard to imagine this bunch warming to "Birdman" or "The Grand Budapest Hotel," and "St. Vincent" just isn't that good. Maybe "Into the Woods" -- prestige musical, Brit in the lead role?
What should win: Not a Wes Anderson crowd, not by a longshot, but "The Grand Budapest Hotel" is Anderson at his rarified best. "Birdman" is equally deserving.
Best Actor -- Musical or Comedy: Ralph Fiennes "The Grand Budapest Hotel," Michael Keaton "Birdman," Bill Murray "St. Vincent," Joaquin Phoenix "Inherent Vice," Christoph Waltz "Big Eyes."
Who will win: When in doubt at the Golden Globes, go with the Englishman. These voters love Fiennes, and they don't love some of the other mavericks.
Who should win: I love this category -- all are deserving except Waltz, a little grating and one-note in "Big Eyes." I'd take Phoenix but sure wouldn't quarrel with Keaton getting his due.
Best Actress -- Musical or Comedy: Amy Adams "Big Eyes," Emily Blunt "Into The Woods," Helen Mirren "The Hundred-Foot Journey," Julianne Moore "Maps to the Stars."
Who will win: Normally I'd say Mirren because she's Helen Mirren and they're not, but I'm thinking Blunt and "Into the Woods" might get some Golden Globes love.
Who should win: Moore, and why not?
Best Supporting Actor: Robert Duvall "The Judge," Ethan Hawke "Boyhood," Edward Norton "Birdman," Mark Ruffalo "Foxcatcher," J.K. Simmons "Whiplash."
Who will win: The supporting categories are more of an Oscar preview because there's no drama/comedy split. I'd shudder if Duvall's hammy performance was rewarded but I think it's Simmons' year, all the way to Oscar.
Who should win: Simmons. It's a lead role, but so what? He's great.
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette "Boyhood," Jessica Chastain "A Most Violent Year," Keira Knightley "The Imitation Game," Emma Stone "Birdman," Meryl Streep "Into the Woods."
Who will win: If Knightley wins, it's big momentum for "The Imitation Game." If Streep wins, they should just name every trophy after her. I think it's Arquette's year, all the way to Oscar.
Who should win: Arquette. It's a lead role, but so what? She's great.
Best Director: Wes Anderson "The Grand Budapest Hotel," Ava DuVernay "Selma," David Fincher "Gone Girl," Alejandro González Iñárritu "Birdman," Richard Linklater "Boyhood."
Who will win: Great category, all are deserving. Maybe DuVernay will be the first woman since Barbra Streisand to win.
Who should win: Linklater. The visionary.
Best Animated Feature Film: "Big Hero 6," "The Book of Life," "The Boxtrolls," "How to Train Your Dragon 2," "The Lego Movie."
What will win: Some nice work here, but "The Lego Movie" has wit and flair to spare.
What should win: "The Lego Movie."
Best Foreign Language Film: "Force Majeure" (Sweden), "Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem," (Israel), "Ida" (Poland/Denmark), "Leviathan" (Russia), "Tangerines" (Estonia).
What will win: "Ida" is a small, quiet masterpiece.
What should win: "Ida."
Best Screenplay: Wes Anderson "The Grand Budapest Hotel," Gillian Flynn "Gone Girl," Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Armando Bo,
Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. "Birdman," Richard Linklater "Boyhood," Graham Moore "The Imitation Game."
What will win: Moore's script for "The Imitation Game" hits all the right notes in all the right places.
What should win: Anderson. Not Linklater? What about my unending love for all things "Boyhood"? I think Anderson's a solo artist as a writer, and his "Budapest" script is airtight and so much fun.
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat "The Imitation Game," Johann Johannsson "The Theory of Everything," Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross "Gone Girl," Antonio Sanchez "Birdman," Hans Zimmer "Interstellar."
What will win: Zimmer wrote a big, boomy score, as anyone's who been in the theater next to "Interstellar" knows. Desplat is a workaholic, and his score hits all the right notes in all the right places.
What should win: The jazzy beat that Sanchez puts down in "Birdman" pushes the pace of a wild, original ride.
Best Original Song - Motion Picture: "Big Eyes" from "Big Eyes" (Lana Del Rey), "Glory" from "Selma" (John Legend, Common), "Mercy Is" from "Noah" (Patti Smith, Lenny Kaye), "Opportunity" from "Annie" (Sia), "Yellow Flicker Beat" from "The Hunger Games: Mockingjay -- Part 1" (Lorde)
What will win: Not a Lana del Rey crowd, not a Patti Smith crowd, and definitely not a Sia crowd. "Glory" is a safe choice, and Lorde's closing-credits anthem isn't so bad.
What should win: "Big Eyes" is such an in-the-pocket choice -- it feels like Lana del Rey posed for those paintings.
-- Jeff Baker
